The end of this typhoon season in the Pacific is apparently going to be historic. 25 named storms, Phailin was a CAT 5 and possibly the biggest storm on record and now we have TWO more typhoons churning in the Pacific. Typhoon Nari will impact Vietnam within the next two days as a possible CAT 2 storm and Typhoon Wipha could impact Japan with the next 4 days as a CAT 3-4 storm.
AT 141800Z, TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 654 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS.
AT 141800Z, TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.2E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM EASTWARD OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 151.4E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LOW-LEVEL WAVE EVIDENT IN A 142020Z TRMM IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, RELAXING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS LIKELY.
Heads up to our friends in Vietnam and Japan, it looks like a rocky week. Stay safe. We will update if new developments occur.
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