El Heirro Update – Activity is Increasing! Stay Alert!

Activity over the last 48 hours has increased significantly both in frequency and intensity of earthquakes.  The FARO data is also suggesting increased deformation.  Please pay close attention East Coasters. Here is a recap diary of the most recent activity.

el Heirro3_29_13

2013-03-29 16:16 UTC
– A very powerful earthquake has been reported from El Hierro so far.
– People at the island told Julio that this felt as being the strongest so far
– Rockfall has been reported in different places.

2013-03-29 13:11 UTC
Pevolca has met and says in essence what we have been telling all day.
– As seismicity is still at a safe distance from the coast (what is safe ?) no other protective measures should be taken (see earlier Pevolca report for the initial measures below).
– Pevolca also confirms that the seismic activity is moving the the South-West. ER would call it South
– The strong earthquakes are continuing at a high frequency at the time of writing

2013-03-29 11:17 UTC

Impressive seismic activity
– The released energy since the start of this crisis has surpassed the total energy released during the initial eruptive crisis in 2011
– So far today (11 hours) we have counted 51 M3+ earthquakes
– 8 M4+ earthquake – 4 of which have been felt by the people (in fact everything has been felt, but people do not report it anymore). The strongest ones have also been felt at the neighboring islands like La Palma
– Remember the words of local seismologists/volcanologists shortly after the start of this crisis “this crisis will not last long as the feeding source does not have enough energy”. This remark is not meant to be offensive to those scientists, only that we have to be humble when we talk about the unknown aspects of nature.

elheirroseismic3_29

 

2013-03-29 11:00 UTC
– Relatively calm period at this moment
– The seabed depth of the current seismic activity is +2000 meter (+6000 ft) = safe + weakening the shaking impact

2013-03-29 09:42 UTC
– The strong M4.6 earthquake had his epicenter at approx. 6 km out of the coast (thats closer than previous strong earthquakes).
– Hypocenters show a tendency to become shallower again (17 km), with a few shallower ones.
– The seismic active area is still below a relatively flat seabed but the distance to the submarine volcanic hills is gradually decreasing.

2013-03-29 09:07 UTC
– Strong events are following each other up at a high rate today.

elheirroseisgraph3_29

2013-03-29 08:58 UTC
– The volcano does not give up so far. He continues to shake the greater epicenter area and some of these quakes can even be felt at other islands.
– 64 earthquakes listed by IGN so far (they only list the stronger ones now – the real number today must run already into the hundreds)
– Strongest earthquake so far today : M4.3 (initially quoted as M4.6)
– The hypocenters are again in the 20 km layer (like the crisis in mid-2012)
– Deformation is further increasing. The images below are from the Lighthouse GPS station (also western part of the island)
– Epicenters are a little more to the south today, which may explain the deeper hypocenters. Still far enough out of the coast to weaken the earthquake impact on the island. Red bullets are very shallow earthquakes. The red bullet in the Las Calmas sea is erroneous BUT we take special interest in the 2 shallow earthquakes below the South-Western coast of the island. They have been calculated at M2.0 and M2.2, strange … As these quakes are far away from the seismic area it looks to us that these are earthquakes which have been triggered by the deformation of the island. IGN (with a lot more data) will certainly know what is exactly was.
– The strong action is still continuing.

We will update as warranted.

 

Pay Attention, USGS is not!, El Heirro Update

As we continue the monitor the situation in La Palma, What really struck us this morning is that USGS is not even showing ANY activity in the Canary Islands. We witnessed this the last time El Heirro was grumbling, NOTHING from USGS.  Here is the latest screenshot from the USGS EQ site, and as you will notice, even though they are supposed to be reporting and showing every quake over 2.5M, there are NO quakes showing in the Canary Islands.

usgs EQ 25 mar 13

UPDATE- El Heirro – March 25, 2013 – 10:00PST

The activity continues and is growing in both magnitude and frequency of harmonic quakes. You can monitor the situation closely at El Heirro Monitoring.  The likelihood of a new submarine eruption in the near future is increasing. Earthquakes and pulsating strong tremor continued with little changes, indicators of magma intruding into new dikes in the western rift zone. There is also a trend towards stronger quakes (about 20 magnitude 3+ events including a M4 this morning) and shallower earthquakes (many at around 11-12 km depth today). This suggests that magma is slowly breaking pathways upwards, i.e. towards the seafloor. The area has remained about 5 km off shore NW from the western tip of the island, ie. under the submarine prolongation of the volcano’s western rift zone. This is where now a new eruption should be expected, if the magma does not decide to migrate laterally once again.

quakes-el-hierro-250313-list.png (2)

So keep close watch if you are on the East Coast.  We have received questions about “how bad would it be if the worst case scenario would unfold. Our best guess, and it is a guess, is that a tsunami of 150’ could impact the east coast, with Florida and Georgia feeling the greatest impacts.  So to answer the question of where do you go and when, getting to elevations above 500’ ASL should minimize the danger. If the western face of El Heirro would suddenly calve as a part of an eruption, East Coasters may have 8 hours to act. The real concern we have is how fast MSM would report such an event, which could lose precious evacuation time, and at what time the event would occur. For example, if the eruption occurred at 12 AM or very early morning, people may simply not be aware the event occurred.

The situation remains Yellow, keep close watch.  You can also monitor real time EQ activity here, since USGS chooses not to even consider the danger.

EMSC-CSEM Earthquake Monitoring

More as we get it.

Eruption of the El Hierro Volcano in the Canary Islands? Heads Up East Coast

As we continue monitoring seismic events globally, we on occasion feel there is enough “unusual” activity to issue watches for potentially impacted areas.  Traditionally one of our greatest concerns is the La Palma volcano in the Canary Islands because of a very large risk that such an eruption would generate a potentially dangerous tsunami that would effect the entire east coast and doe so with less than 8 hours notice.

Such events are now occurring. In fact, there is now a Red Alert and evacuations going on in La Restinga .  Check out the map above of recent seismic activity in the area. There have been 155 earthquakes above magnitude 2 today (Saturday) alone. The seismic swarm continues with even increasing intensity, as to both the average magnitude and frequency of earthquakes, as well as amplitude of harmonic volcanic tremor which is oscillating between higher and lower phases. This might correspond to some sort of “stop and go” behavior of magma moving its way through new cracks in the lower crust beneath the island. The location of the epicenters of quakes, the presumed location of the current magma intrusions, is now about 5 km NW of the western tip of the island, and at depths between 10-17 km. No strong upwards trend is yet visible, but this could change quickly.
Today’s earthquake count so far:
– 155 earthquakes > mag 2
– including 15 between M3-3.5

Eventos_HIERRO_2D_31 (1)

Earthquakes continue with increasing magnitudes

Update Sat 23 Mar 16:41

The scenario of an eruption in the near future is becoming increasingly likely:
– Volcanic tremor continues, suggesting magma is still moving although mostly laterally for the time being to an area just north off the western tip of the island.
– Earthquakes continue at high frequency and increasing magnitudes (more than 90 quakes above magnitude 2, including 8 of magnitudes 3-3.5 so far today). Their epicenters have remained at 14-16 km depth mostly, with some shallower events as well.
– Deformation of the western part of the island continues to increase, with vertical uplift reaching about 5 cm on some stations in the westernmost part of the island. 

Again folks on the East Coast should pay attention over the next few days.  Check those bug out bags and remember the sooner you get to go the more likely you will get to safety.  If any changes occur we will post them as soon as possible.  this would reflect to a condition Yellow.

What Are We Not Being Told..Or Worse What Don’t We Know

The meteor that streaked across the Russian Skies was reported as the largest in 100 hundred years.  Its size was approximately 70 feet across, and was traveling at between 14,000 and 30,000 MPH.  When it exploded mid-air, the blast was equivalent to 30X a Hiroshima size explosion.  Up to 1200 people were injured (and I am sure many more animals) and damages will be in the billions of Rubles.

fireball1

Within a 24 hour period around this event, fireballs were also reported in Cuba, British Columbia, Belgium, The Netherlands, and Japan, with associated sonic booms and witnessed fragmentation.  The experts keep insisting that these events were unrelated. How they know that is not clear. The issue is becoming more complex as today, February 17, 2013, two MORE fireballs have been seen in Florida and over the San Francisco Bay Area.

As a matter of fact, these types of events are a lot more frequent than most people think. On average the American Meteor Society routinely handles 300-500 reports monthly.  However, within the last 30 days they have 895 reports and a significant increase in the reports of sonic booms and fragmentation being seen with witnessed fireballs.

While we can accept that these fireballs may not be orphans of 2012 DA14, we cannot accept that these events are not related.  This many fireballs in this short period of time is related if we are entering some sort of space debris field.

Folks, we are getting a bit concerned here for several reasons.  This increase in activity has been predicted by at least three separate sources or groups as a matter of record.  The FarSight Institute folks made these predictions for this time period nearly two years ago.  Cliff High from Half Past Human made similar predictions starting first in 2003 and then again earlier last fall. Also, we have the predictions that were made and continue to be discussed by Nancy Lieber at ZetaTalk.

These current real events represent a convergence of elements that stretch the argument that these events are purely co-incidental beyond credibility, in our opinion.  It simply is too many events concentrated in a very short time window. It has raised our interest, in particular, because of a lack of reporting all of these items collectively in MSM.

This is further disturbing because near future events showing up on the WebBot project suggest we may be experiencing similar events in late March and these events could precipitate a major trans-global coastal event sometime between late March and early April.

fireball2

Given all of these factors, we are now suggesting that we may all need to be prepared (although we are not sure how we should prepare) for possibly more of the events within the next 4-8 weeks.  A major interesting result of 2012 DA 14 was there appeared to be a large EMF/gravity wave associated with the event. That meant that cars, appliances, and electrical sources were briefly affected by the passing of these fireballs.  This does suggest that if we are entering into a “field” of these meteors/asteroids that there could be major disruptions of communications and power grids.  In addition, there have been some concerns being voiced in certain technical disciplines about damage and disruption to communication satellites in orbit.  Finally, given the predictions of major global coastal events, a large body slamming into a major ocean at the speeds being measured in the objects that have already “buzzed” us could definitely trigger major tsunami events.

The other concern we have is that there was no pre-warning to any of these events, with the exception of 2012 DA14.  The question becomes did the USAF Space Weather Program, NASA, JPL, Russian, and ESA tracking facilities not “see” these objects or did they see them and simply have not reported them? Either answer to that question is extremely disturbing to say the least. The age old question raises its ugly head, if we WERE headed into a real storm that will have major consequences, would we be told in advance or would we be “on our own”? Lot’s floating on the conspiracy sites, but we are not paying any attention to these speculations.  The FACTS that are unfolding though do suggest something is happening and it just might be time to recheck all those emergency supplies and “bug-out” kits.  We will certainly post more as we get it.

Tsunami Status Update – Atlantic Region – Remains Yellow

Our last alert was issued on August 30th. Since that time, our concerns over the Virgin Island earthquake swarms have NOT abated.  The Virgin Islands continue to have swarms of earthquakes daily in the 2.5 to 4.5 magnitude range.  However, recent significant quakes along the mid-Atlantic ridge have made these concerns a little more serious for the folks on the east coast, especially from North Carolina to Florida.

There are several factors coming together that concern us enough we are issuing this status update.  Our concern still focuses on the Cumbre Vieja Volcano with a potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands.

Factor #1 – The swarms of quakes in the Virgin Islands have continued unabated, indicating either significant plate movements or eruptions in deep underwater vents, indicating plate pressure and movements.

Factor#2 – The recent quakes along the mid-Atlantic ridge and the potential for increased seismic and volcanic activity.  What we don’t have is a clear geological understanding of the East-West fault lines connecting the mid-Atlantic ridge to the seismically active regions both in the Virgin Islands and La Palma.

Factor#3 – There has been a significant increase in global seismic activity in the last 30 days.  Patrick Geryl has made more than a causal relationship to this increase in seismic activity and solar flaring , which may be somehow related to quakes.  He has been uncanningly accurate with his associated predictions for a significant period of time now, accurately predicting significant seismic events.   His hypothesis suggests that when the planets align, we can expect increased solar flaring, and the solar flaring causes increased geomagnetic pressure on the tectonic plates.  As such we are about to enter a phase of several significant alignments.  Indeed a significant solar flare has erupted from the sun, is earth directed, and due to arrive tomorrow, October 8, 2012.  In addition, there are more significant alignments due in the next two months.

October 31, 2012: Conjunction Neptune – Mercury and the Sun strong X flare possible   No real earthquake date…

3 Possible 7.5 plus earthquakes:  October 25, 29 or November 1

October 23 – 27, 2012: Opposition Earth – Saturn across the Sun October 24, 2012: Line Up Neptune – Moon – Earth.

October 25 – 30, 2012: Long Triple Line Up: Mars – Earth – Jupiter

October 26, 2012: Line Up Venus – Moon – Earth and Uranus – Moon – Earth

October 29, 2012: Line Up Sun – Moon – Earth and Saturn – Moon – Earth

October 31, 2012: Line Up Mercury – Moon – Earth

October 31 – November 3, 2012: Long Triple Line Up: Uranus – Earth – Venus

November 1, 2012: Line Up Jupiter – Moon – Earth and Mars – Moon – Earth

Why our concern continues to focus on La Palma has to do specifically with recent studies suggesting that geological evidence for a future collapse of the Cumbre Vieja is absolute.  A recent University of California study is, to say the least, sobering.

The issue is that the Cumbre Vieja Volcano on the Island of La Palma may experience a catastrophic failure of its west flank, dropping 150 to 500 km3 of rock into the sea. This would send not one, but a series of tsunamis west bound striking the areas of the US, as we outlined above.  These tsunami pulses could range from 30-40 M to 5-10M in rapid succession within nine hours of the flank collapse. See below.

Therefore, we continue to advise our friends to keep watch and to make sure they have their “bug-out” bags at the ready.  We wish to make clear we are NOT sounding any alarms, but only these elements seem to be combining in such a fashion it bears to be watched closely.

Yellow Alert Status – Tsunami Watch Virgin Island Area/Eastern Caribbean Region

This is a yellow alert bulletin from our watch team.  If you have friends travelling to the region or friends who live there, it is time to at least give them a heads up.  The magnitude and frequency of the earthquake swarms has increased in the last 24 hours prompting this alert.  The region also has a recent history of creating tsunamis and the area of quake activity is on a plate fault line that has had significant movements with previous great quakes.  This is complicated by deep water graduating to very shallow water quickly which can amplify tsunami wave heights very quickly and without much time to react.

Virgin Islands region has had:

  • 14 earthquakes today
  • 118 earthquakes in the past 7 days
  • 141 earthquakes in the past month

 

The 1867 Virgin Island Tsunami

On the afternoon of November 18, 1867, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred in the Anegada trough, located between the US Virgin Islands of St. Croix, and St. Thomas. The earthquake actually consisted of two shocks, separated by ten minutes. These shocks generated two tsunami waves that were recorded at several Island locations across the eastern Caribbean region, most notably on the Islands of St. Thomas and St. Croix.

The first tsunami wave struck the town of Charlotte Amalie, on the island of St. Thomas, approximately 10 minutes after the first shock, and the second wave approximately 10 minutes after the second shock. Both waves struck the harbor at Charlotte Amalie first as a large recession of water, followed by a bore, which eyewitness accounts describe as a 4.5 to 6.1 meter wall of water. At the southern point of Water Island, located approximately four kilometers from Charlotte Amalie, the bore was reportedly 12.1 meters high! The waves destroyed many small boats anchored in the harbor, leveled the town’s iron wharf, and either flooded out or destroyed all buildings located along the waterfront area. The waves also damaged a United States Navy ship De Soto, that happened to be anchored in the harbor at the time of the event. The tsunami produced an estimated 2.4 meters of runup at Charlotte Amalie, and a maximum 75 meter inland inundation.

Fredriksted St. Croix was struck by two large tsunami waves, each approximately 7.6 meters high, according to eyewitness accounts. These waves caused severe damage along the waterfront, washing several wooden houses and other structures a considerable distance inland. The waves destroyed many of the smaller boats anchored in the harbor, and beached a large United States Navy ship, the Monongahela (see photo below). A total of five people died as a result of the tsunami. Eyewitness accounts from Frederiksted indicate that the water withdrew from the harbor almost immediately after the earthquake, which suggests that the first wave to strike here might have been a local tsunami produced by a submarine landslide. Reports from Christiansted, St. Croix, indicate that the tsunami inundated an area up to 91 meters inland. The greatest damage here occurred at Gallows Bay, where the waves destroyed 20 houses and beached many boats.

The 1967 Virgin Island Tsunami

The 1967 Virgin Island tsunami was recorded at several other islands in the eastern Caribbean region. The tsunami produced 1.2 to 1.5 meters of runup, and washed away most of the smaller buildings on the island of Tortola in the British Virgin Islands. At St. John’s on the Island of Antigua, the tsunami produced a 2.4 to 2 meter runup. At St. Rose on the island of Guadeloupe, the tsunami reportedly struck as a 18.3 meter wave, flooding houses and damaging boats. This extreme value however, is most likely an exaggeration, as it exceed the maximum wave heights reported at the locations closest to the earthquake’s epicenter, and the tsunami waves reported at nearby Basse-Terre where only 2 meters high. At Bequia Island the tsunami washed in as a 1.8 meter wave. At St. George, on the island of Grenada, 1.5 meter tsunami waves damaged boats and buildings. The tsunami was also observed at several locations on the eastern shore of Puerto Rico. At all location the tsunami was marked by an initial recession of water from the shore.

Coastal Area Yellow Alert- Now May Be The Time To Review Evacuation Plans

As our regular readers know, we are constantly monitoring solar, astrophysical, and geological events as the earth does seem to be going through many dramatic changes.  This summer’s heat and drought, seismic events, Greenland’s ice melt, wandering poles, and increased volcanic activity are just a few of the FACTS to demonstrate these changes.

What we do NOT do is subscribe to all of the crap and disinformation floating the internet these days. We do try our best to stick to facts and empirical data to draw our conclusions.  As that is the background to this alert, please understand that we don’t predict events, but rather look at patterns to see if trends are moving in a certain direction.  You have seen that in our previous warnings and alerts.  This alert is no different.  We are NOT saying there is an impending event, but rather there are indications and events occurring NOW that do bear watching closely.

What we are saying now is that it may be a good idea, if you live near a coast plain to review your emergency evacuation plans and go over them with your families and friends to make sure you are prepared to move away from the coast at a moment’s notice.  If and when a warning would come, the faster you can mobilize, the less likely you are going to be trapped on evacuation routes.  One only has to remember Houston or New Oleans during Katrina to understand what we are saying.

Now here is what we are seeing and why we are publishing this alert at this time.

1). Over the past two months, and more specifically over the last two weeks we have seen a marked uptick in volcanic activity, especially in the southern hemisphere.  Volcanos that have been dormant for 100 years or more have started to show activity, especially in New Zealand. There are currently 17 volcanos erupting globally, and that is about 2x average.

2). We have seen a dramatic increase in 6.0+ earthquakes in the last week, and other significant earthquakes in areas that normally are not seismically active.  Further earlier today we had a 7.7 earthquake off the North Japanese Island.  What was worrisome about this quake was not its potential to produce a tsunami, but its depth at over 500+ Kilometers in depth.  This signifies a deep whole plate movement and could indicate plate adjustments in both adjoining plates and opposite plates could occur as a response to this movement.

3). In the US, there have been many reports of unusually military movements in the US.  There have also been naval movements including moving a ship out of drydock and towed to sea at Norfolk.  This just doesn’t happen.

4). Remote viewers from FarSight.Org have been seeing a major coastal event that was seen occurring between August and January of 2013 in MANY coastal cities globally for months now. We know a number of our readers aren’t sure they buy into RV as a science, but these guys are the best in the world and have been amazingly accurate in the past.

After much thought and given these facts, we felt it prudent to issue this alert.  Again, let us emphasize, we are not making any predictions here of an impeding event, as we simply do not have such an ability.  What we are saying to you this may be a good time to review plans and make sure you all know what to do and all of your loved ones do too.  If nothing else, it is always a good idea to exercise such plans.