El Heirro Update – Activity is Increasing! Stay Alert!

Activity over the last 48 hours has increased significantly both in frequency and intensity of earthquakes.  The FARO data is also suggesting increased deformation.  Please pay close attention East Coasters. Here is a recap diary of the most recent activity.

el Heirro3_29_13

2013-03-29 16:16 UTC
– A very powerful earthquake has been reported from El Hierro so far.
– People at the island told Julio that this felt as being the strongest so far
– Rockfall has been reported in different places.

2013-03-29 13:11 UTC
Pevolca has met and says in essence what we have been telling all day.
– As seismicity is still at a safe distance from the coast (what is safe ?) no other protective measures should be taken (see earlier Pevolca report for the initial measures below).
– Pevolca also confirms that the seismic activity is moving the the South-West. ER would call it South
– The strong earthquakes are continuing at a high frequency at the time of writing

2013-03-29 11:17 UTC

Impressive seismic activity
– The released energy since the start of this crisis has surpassed the total energy released during the initial eruptive crisis in 2011
– So far today (11 hours) we have counted 51 M3+ earthquakes
– 8 M4+ earthquake – 4 of which have been felt by the people (in fact everything has been felt, but people do not report it anymore). The strongest ones have also been felt at the neighboring islands like La Palma
– Remember the words of local seismologists/volcanologists shortly after the start of this crisis “this crisis will not last long as the feeding source does not have enough energy”. This remark is not meant to be offensive to those scientists, only that we have to be humble when we talk about the unknown aspects of nature.

elheirroseismic3_29

 

2013-03-29 11:00 UTC
– Relatively calm period at this moment
– The seabed depth of the current seismic activity is +2000 meter (+6000 ft) = safe + weakening the shaking impact

2013-03-29 09:42 UTC
– The strong M4.6 earthquake had his epicenter at approx. 6 km out of the coast (thats closer than previous strong earthquakes).
– Hypocenters show a tendency to become shallower again (17 km), with a few shallower ones.
– The seismic active area is still below a relatively flat seabed but the distance to the submarine volcanic hills is gradually decreasing.

2013-03-29 09:07 UTC
– Strong events are following each other up at a high rate today.

elheirroseisgraph3_29

2013-03-29 08:58 UTC
– The volcano does not give up so far. He continues to shake the greater epicenter area and some of these quakes can even be felt at other islands.
– 64 earthquakes listed by IGN so far (they only list the stronger ones now – the real number today must run already into the hundreds)
– Strongest earthquake so far today : M4.3 (initially quoted as M4.6)
– The hypocenters are again in the 20 km layer (like the crisis in mid-2012)
– Deformation is further increasing. The images below are from the Lighthouse GPS station (also western part of the island)
– Epicenters are a little more to the south today, which may explain the deeper hypocenters. Still far enough out of the coast to weaken the earthquake impact on the island. Red bullets are very shallow earthquakes. The red bullet in the Las Calmas sea is erroneous BUT we take special interest in the 2 shallow earthquakes below the South-Western coast of the island. They have been calculated at M2.0 and M2.2, strange … As these quakes are far away from the seismic area it looks to us that these are earthquakes which have been triggered by the deformation of the island. IGN (with a lot more data) will certainly know what is exactly was.
– The strong action is still continuing.

We will update as warranted.

 

Pay Attention, USGS is not!, El Heirro Update

As we continue the monitor the situation in La Palma, What really struck us this morning is that USGS is not even showing ANY activity in the Canary Islands. We witnessed this the last time El Heirro was grumbling, NOTHING from USGS.  Here is the latest screenshot from the USGS EQ site, and as you will notice, even though they are supposed to be reporting and showing every quake over 2.5M, there are NO quakes showing in the Canary Islands.

usgs EQ 25 mar 13

UPDATE- El Heirro – March 25, 2013 – 10:00PST

The activity continues and is growing in both magnitude and frequency of harmonic quakes. You can monitor the situation closely at El Heirro Monitoring.  The likelihood of a new submarine eruption in the near future is increasing. Earthquakes and pulsating strong tremor continued with little changes, indicators of magma intruding into new dikes in the western rift zone. There is also a trend towards stronger quakes (about 20 magnitude 3+ events including a M4 this morning) and shallower earthquakes (many at around 11-12 km depth today). This suggests that magma is slowly breaking pathways upwards, i.e. towards the seafloor. The area has remained about 5 km off shore NW from the western tip of the island, ie. under the submarine prolongation of the volcano’s western rift zone. This is where now a new eruption should be expected, if the magma does not decide to migrate laterally once again.

quakes-el-hierro-250313-list.png (2)

So keep close watch if you are on the East Coast.  We have received questions about “how bad would it be if the worst case scenario would unfold. Our best guess, and it is a guess, is that a tsunami of 150’ could impact the east coast, with Florida and Georgia feeling the greatest impacts.  So to answer the question of where do you go and when, getting to elevations above 500’ ASL should minimize the danger. If the western face of El Heirro would suddenly calve as a part of an eruption, East Coasters may have 8 hours to act. The real concern we have is how fast MSM would report such an event, which could lose precious evacuation time, and at what time the event would occur. For example, if the eruption occurred at 12 AM or very early morning, people may simply not be aware the event occurred.

The situation remains Yellow, keep close watch.  You can also monitor real time EQ activity here, since USGS chooses not to even consider the danger.

EMSC-CSEM Earthquake Monitoring

More as we get it.

Eruption of the El Hierro Volcano in the Canary Islands? Heads Up East Coast

As we continue monitoring seismic events globally, we on occasion feel there is enough “unusual” activity to issue watches for potentially impacted areas.  Traditionally one of our greatest concerns is the La Palma volcano in the Canary Islands because of a very large risk that such an eruption would generate a potentially dangerous tsunami that would effect the entire east coast and doe so with less than 8 hours notice.

Such events are now occurring. In fact, there is now a Red Alert and evacuations going on in La Restinga .  Check out the map above of recent seismic activity in the area. There have been 155 earthquakes above magnitude 2 today (Saturday) alone. The seismic swarm continues with even increasing intensity, as to both the average magnitude and frequency of earthquakes, as well as amplitude of harmonic volcanic tremor which is oscillating between higher and lower phases. This might correspond to some sort of “stop and go” behavior of magma moving its way through new cracks in the lower crust beneath the island. The location of the epicenters of quakes, the presumed location of the current magma intrusions, is now about 5 km NW of the western tip of the island, and at depths between 10-17 km. No strong upwards trend is yet visible, but this could change quickly.
Today’s earthquake count so far:
– 155 earthquakes > mag 2
– including 15 between M3-3.5

Eventos_HIERRO_2D_31 (1)

Earthquakes continue with increasing magnitudes

Update Sat 23 Mar 16:41

The scenario of an eruption in the near future is becoming increasingly likely:
– Volcanic tremor continues, suggesting magma is still moving although mostly laterally for the time being to an area just north off the western tip of the island.
– Earthquakes continue at high frequency and increasing magnitudes (more than 90 quakes above magnitude 2, including 8 of magnitudes 3-3.5 so far today). Their epicenters have remained at 14-16 km depth mostly, with some shallower events as well.
– Deformation of the western part of the island continues to increase, with vertical uplift reaching about 5 cm on some stations in the westernmost part of the island. 

Again folks on the East Coast should pay attention over the next few days.  Check those bug out bags and remember the sooner you get to go the more likely you will get to safety.  If any changes occur we will post them as soon as possible.  this would reflect to a condition Yellow.

What Are We Not Being Told..Or Worse What Don’t We Know

The meteor that streaked across the Russian Skies was reported as the largest in 100 hundred years.  Its size was approximately 70 feet across, and was traveling at between 14,000 and 30,000 MPH.  When it exploded mid-air, the blast was equivalent to 30X a Hiroshima size explosion.  Up to 1200 people were injured (and I am sure many more animals) and damages will be in the billions of Rubles.

fireball1

Within a 24 hour period around this event, fireballs were also reported in Cuba, British Columbia, Belgium, The Netherlands, and Japan, with associated sonic booms and witnessed fragmentation.  The experts keep insisting that these events were unrelated. How they know that is not clear. The issue is becoming more complex as today, February 17, 2013, two MORE fireballs have been seen in Florida and over the San Francisco Bay Area.

As a matter of fact, these types of events are a lot more frequent than most people think. On average the American Meteor Society routinely handles 300-500 reports monthly.  However, within the last 30 days they have 895 reports and a significant increase in the reports of sonic booms and fragmentation being seen with witnessed fireballs.

While we can accept that these fireballs may not be orphans of 2012 DA14, we cannot accept that these events are not related.  This many fireballs in this short period of time is related if we are entering some sort of space debris field.

Folks, we are getting a bit concerned here for several reasons.  This increase in activity has been predicted by at least three separate sources or groups as a matter of record.  The FarSight Institute folks made these predictions for this time period nearly two years ago.  Cliff High from Half Past Human made similar predictions starting first in 2003 and then again earlier last fall. Also, we have the predictions that were made and continue to be discussed by Nancy Lieber at ZetaTalk.

These current real events represent a convergence of elements that stretch the argument that these events are purely co-incidental beyond credibility, in our opinion.  It simply is too many events concentrated in a very short time window. It has raised our interest, in particular, because of a lack of reporting all of these items collectively in MSM.

This is further disturbing because near future events showing up on the WebBot project suggest we may be experiencing similar events in late March and these events could precipitate a major trans-global coastal event sometime between late March and early April.

fireball2

Given all of these factors, we are now suggesting that we may all need to be prepared (although we are not sure how we should prepare) for possibly more of the events within the next 4-8 weeks.  A major interesting result of 2012 DA 14 was there appeared to be a large EMF/gravity wave associated with the event. That meant that cars, appliances, and electrical sources were briefly affected by the passing of these fireballs.  This does suggest that if we are entering into a “field” of these meteors/asteroids that there could be major disruptions of communications and power grids.  In addition, there have been some concerns being voiced in certain technical disciplines about damage and disruption to communication satellites in orbit.  Finally, given the predictions of major global coastal events, a large body slamming into a major ocean at the speeds being measured in the objects that have already “buzzed” us could definitely trigger major tsunami events.

The other concern we have is that there was no pre-warning to any of these events, with the exception of 2012 DA14.  The question becomes did the USAF Space Weather Program, NASA, JPL, Russian, and ESA tracking facilities not “see” these objects or did they see them and simply have not reported them? Either answer to that question is extremely disturbing to say the least. The age old question raises its ugly head, if we WERE headed into a real storm that will have major consequences, would we be told in advance or would we be “on our own”? Lot’s floating on the conspiracy sites, but we are not paying any attention to these speculations.  The FACTS that are unfolding though do suggest something is happening and it just might be time to recheck all those emergency supplies and “bug-out” kits.  We will certainly post more as we get it.

Warning/Watch M Class Solar Flares Possible Nov. 21-Nov.25

Sunspot 1611 is growing in complexity and an M1 Flare has lifted from the eastern limb.  A CME from the solar prominence has also lifted off, but does not look earth directed. However, given the increase in activity there is a 70% chance on an M Class flare with an associated CME over the next four days.  This could be significant enough to effect satellites, radio communications, especially in the northern latitudes and there is also a possibility of disruption of various computer networks.

An X Class flare and large CME erupted on the backside of the sun two days ago that if earth directed would have caused severe disruption to the power grid. Therefore keep close watch as it seems Ole Sol is winding up a bit.

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green


Heads Up – Status Update #1 – Pay Attention If You Live on the Coastlines

It appears our concerns have become somewhat validated over the last 24 hours.  There was a 6.5 quake in Alaska and 2 M Class solar flares within the last 18 hours.  Both of the flares are earth directed and the sunspot anomalies are growing more complex rapidly.

Updated 11/13/2012 @ 00:50 UTC
Two M-Class Solar Flares
Solar activity picked up in a hurry with the emergence of Sunspot 1613 located in the southern hemisphere. A solar flare reaching M2.0 was detected at 23:28 UTC late Monday, followed by an impulsive M6.0 event at 02:04 UTC early Tuesday morning.

6.5 Earthquake Alaska Event Time

2012-11-12 10:42:15 UTC-10:00 at epicenter

Location – 57.544°N 142.889°W depth=55.2km (34.3mi)

Nearby Cities

248km (154mi) S of Cape Yakataga, Alaska

502km (312mi) W of Juneau, Alaska

544km (338mi) SE of Anchorage, Alaska

549km (341mi) WSW of Whitehorse, Canada

554km (344mi) SE of Knik-Fairview, Alaska

* This quake was a horizontal slip and not a vertical slip so no tsunami was generated.

We also believe this does not diminish our concerns as the other events are STILL building. In fact it increases our concerns and certainly everyone in coastal areas should stay very alert at least for the next 2-7 days. Please pay attention if you are in any coastal areas.  Again, no need to panic or bug out, but be ready to move quickly. Depending on where you live, East Coast or West Coast you will have between 4 to 12 hours to get to high ground if a megaquake with associated tsunami is generated.  That’s not a long time.

Seismic Activity is Building and Solar Activity is Accelerating- Heads Up!

As readers know, we are constantly monitoring convergences of activities that could spell increased risk of solar flares and seismic activity. Yesterday (November 11th) elements began to convergence that creates the need for us to issue this heads up.

First, increased seismic activity is definitely happening.  Particularly in Guatemala and Myanmar, where there is both increases in frequency and severity.

In Myanmar, these events have neared the 7.0 magnitude range and the frequency of quakes above 5.0 is significant.

These events are also combining with the significant and surprising solar events. We have had a rapid development of sunspots in the southern hemisphere of the sun, a filament lift-off that has produced an earth directed CME, a coronal hole that is streaming directly at the earth, and soon the rotation of a rather large magnetically complex system just now rotating into view on the western limb. These are illustrated here:

Therefore, given the facts all converging over the next two or three days, we feel it is important to pay attention.  The concern is always a significant quake with resulting tsunamis.  We are not predicting a location, only the likelihood of such an event is definitely increased.  It does appear, given the recent seismic activity that this event will be on the Pacific Rim, but that might not be the case and we could see some Atlantic event along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge or La Palma in the Canary Islands.  However, other than one significant quake along the Midi-Atlantic Ridge last week, seismic activity in the Atlantic region has been low.

There are some significant planetary alignments over the next few days that could also enhance the possibilities of a significant quake (+7.0 or greater).  As always, no need to panic, just be vigilant. More info will be posted if warranted.

4th Bulletin Update Sandy/Frankenstorm

Folks there is nothing we can add to what MSM is now streaming.  This is a storm without equal and nothing we have experienced in the past.  What more can be said?  there are 67 million people in the impact area.  You have only about 6-12 hours to get done what ever you are going to do for preparation.  By all means act now.

We are providing a good checklist below.  Run through it because there may be something you haven’t thought about.  Our thoughts and prayers are with you all.

A Good Checklist for Now

   Minimum 6 days of stored food.
A way to safely boil water so you can prepare food.
Non-electric can openers.
Minimum 6 days of stored water.
Portable water filter.
Full fuel tanks in all your vehicles.
Gasoline and cords for your generator (if you have one).
Sleeping bags for all family members.
Flashlights and batteries.
Minimum 6-day supply of any prescription meds.
Colloidal silver and other emergency medicine items.
Cell phones full charged, with spare batteries.
Minimum one large fully-charged fire extinguisher.
Plenty of clean laundry with warm socks, undies and heavy clothing.
Backup power source: large 12V marine (deep cycle) battery with an inverter to charge cell phones and laptops.
Sponges for cleaning things when there’s no power.
Cleaning agents: Hand soap, dish soap and bleach.
Immune boosting herbal tinctures and supplements.
Topical first aid supplies: Antiseptics, bandages, etc.
Personal hygiene items, including toilet paper.
Emergency multi-purpose knife.
Matches, lighters and fire starting devices.
Activities to pass the time when there’s no TV: books, cards, games, etc.
Copies of your important paperwork and identification documents.
Two-way radios for you and your family members to communicate.
Wind-up weather radio so you can tune in to government broadcasts.• CB broadcasting radio so you can call for help if the cell towers are down.
Nuclear preparedness: Do you have potassium iodide pills?
Hiding stuff: Do you have good hiding places in your home in case criminals break in and overpower you?
Pet preparedness: Do you have enough food and water for your animals?
Go bag: Do you have a “bug out bag” ready in case you have to evacuate?
Hiking gear: What happens if you have to leave on foot?
– Cold weather hiking shoes
– Rugged backpack
– A good hat to protect you from the elements
– Local map and compass
– Water carrying containers (and a way to carry them)
– Portable food
– Weather-proof writing notepad
– Flashlights
– Identification
– Portable self defense items

   Security plans for your neighborhood or building: How will you defend against looters?
Physical barriers to block doors and windows: Are your windows locked?
Tripwire alert devices and motion alert devices • Self defense items to defend against possible looters:
– If firearms, double check your ammo, firearm lubrication and sights.
– Have a challenge / response code word with your family members so that you can identify each other in the dark. For example, if you say “Flash” they should say “Thunder” in response.
– Drill all safety procedures in the home. Children should know in advance where a “safe hiding place” is located.
– Emergency whistles for all children or senior citizens so they can call for help.

Stay Safe everyone and don’t forget to check on your neighbors, especially if they are elderly or confined.

Third Bulletin Update on Hurricane Sandy

The “Frankenstorm” is very real and all the models say it will be as bad as they are expecting it to be.  This was the trifecta of bad storm events converging over a highly populated area.  The ingredients include a warm air heavy moisture ladened hurricane moving N-NW, a strong cold front moving from the W, and an arctic blast of very cold air coming in from the N.  Frankenstorm.

Federal weather forecasters and emergency management officials are warning residents along the East Coast to prepare for major impacts from Hurricane Sandy as it transitions into a larger, more powerful hybrid storm that will take an extremely unusual path. The track and forecasted size of the storm could make it rival or exceed the impacts from some of the worst coastal storms on record in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, such as 1991’s Perfect Storm and the Ash Wednesday storm in 1962, which is regarded as the worst coastal flooding event on record along the Jersey shore.

“It’s almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco said Thursday from his northern storm forecast centre near Washington.. “It’s going to be a widespread serious storm.”

With every hour, meteorologists are getting more confident that this storm is going to be bad and they are able to focus their forecasts more.

Both private and federal meteorologists are calling this a storm that will likely go down in the history of weather events.

“We don’t have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting,” Cisco said.

It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, Cisco’s agency warns. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to the Nov. 6 Election Day, some American meteorologists fear.

Those in the Washington, DC/Baltimore Metro Area can expect to have sustained tropical force winds for up to 24 hours right now as it looks.  Just to the east of this area of concern, the full convergence of the storm will occur in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. This will be the area with the highest likelihood of spawning tornados.  All along the convergence line it will be a wild 6-12 hours.

If you are in those areas, be prepared for prolonged power outages and significant wind damage which will be intensified because a lot of trees still are fully leafed and therefore will be more vulnerable to damage.

Make sure you have enough food and water for 7 days for everyone.  What a lot of people don’t realize that with power out for prolonged periods, municipal water and sewer treatment plants can’t operate.  You need to be prepared for those kinds of impacts.  Even if you have water, you may be required to boil the water before consumption. This usually is a result of flood waters interacting with drinking water sources.  Think about how you would accomplish this without power.

In the northern areas of impacts, keeping warm and dry may also be an issue. Think how you achieve this. There is still 2-3 days to prepare but time is getting short.

The real truth is no one knows exactly what is going to happen, but whatever unfolds will still be unprecedented. The so-called “Perfect Storm” of 1991 caused $200 Million in damages, however, estimates for this Frankenstorm are in the $Billions.

One last thing that people who have gone through such events can attest, please check on your neighbors.  Be sure those around you fared as well as you.

Second Alert Bulletin on Sandy’s Landfall

The situation is a little more defined (80-90%) and it currently looks like Sandy will make landfall, probably on the Delaware coast sometime between 2-4 A.M. Tuesday morning. Sandy is expected to have sustained winds of 70Kts. or 77-80 MPH with gusts to 85 Kts. or about 90-95 MPH. Concerns center on exactly where Sandy makes her dive to the coast and the status of the tides, given we have highest tidal influences at the same time as Sandy is expected to make landfall.  Storm surge could add 6-8 ft to the tides in storm surge. Sandy is then downgraded to extra-tropical and moves quickly into central Pennsylvania probably around State College, Pa, but will still be packing sustained winds of about 60 Kts. or 70 MPH.

On landfall, Sandy’s hurricane force winds will be 35-45  miles out from the center of the storm and tropical force winds extending out 275 miles. Yeah, Sandy is on the chunky side! Therefore, those in the path of the storm can expect tropical force winds lasting up to 24-36 hours.

Given the current situation and various models, Western WV, PA, NY, and most of Ohio could get 20+ inches of heavy wet snow.  Some areas could get 30+ inches of snow.  This will really depend on how long the “stall” that Sandy will experience as she collides with the intense cold air system coming from the west. This is the other part of the perfect storm.  Currently the consensus is this “stall” will last about 48 hours.  However, a few models suggest it could last up to four days.  This concern also has a second variable which is how much intensification of the two storms will occur from their collision.

More when anything significant changes