Comet Ison Update Nov.26

Comet ISON is now zipping along at over 400,000 KPH and is now about 12.7 Million miles from the sun. It’s counterpart, comet ENKE, which we haven’t spoke much of is closer to the sun and is supposedly larger than ISON, but I have to question those estimates, as ISON looks larger than ENKE.

ison_enke1128

However, the energetic exchanges we suspected would occur between the comet and the sun are strongly evident and we expect the show to get even more spectacular as these comets both converge on their respective perihelion points with Ole Sol within the next few days.

August 19th Solar Watch Advisory

As we monitor natural activities that could affect us all globally, solar activity is at the top of the list. Recent solar activity and a news release by NASA last week are prompting us now to issue a watch advisory.

The Sun is about to flip! This news comes by way of a NASA press release about the impending solar polar shift, wherein the Sun will flip its magnetic poles in the culmination of its roughly 11-year solar cycle. The event of the polar flip will serve as the much-hyped solar maximum.

Speaking on the upcoming magnetic flip, Todd Hoeksema, the director of Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory, said that “it looks like we’re no more than three to four months away from a complete field reversal . . . this change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system.”

Based on our observations, this may be happening sooner rather than later in that time estimate. The “internal pole” has already deviated by 30 degrees, and surface changes are becoming more frequent and intense. Today there was a massive CME on the far side of the sun from old sunspot 1809. If this eruption would have occurred when earth facing, we would be subject to a massive geo-magnetic storm that would certain caused major problems with the global power grid and would have definitely fried a lot of satellites. Here are some photos from this August 19th eruption to give you an idea of the scale of the events we could face.

aug20_2013_cme

lasco20aug13

Right now, the Sun is headed for solar maximum, the peak in activity in its 11-year cycle. Because blasts of energy from the Sun are sure to become more powerful and frequent in the future, the chances for Earthly impacts of solar storms increases dramatically. When the highly-charged particles of the solar wind hit our upper atmosphere, they interact with Earth’s magnetic field, causing disruptions in electronic communications and power grids. One job for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to keep an eye on solar weather which, NOAA chief Jane Lubchenco warns, could have dire effects for us on Earth.

When the Sun was at its last peak period in the early 2000s, we were nowhere near as reliant on satellites as we are today. Think back to 2001, far fewer people had a cell phone in their pocket, a GPS unit in their car, and satellite TV in their house. Now, while losing anyone of these conveniences (imagine having to actually read a map!) would be a minor irritation, the fact that solar storms can damage power grids can have massive implications. In March 1989 (during the Sun’s maximum 2 cycles ago) a massive solar storm knocked out power over a large section of Canada. The frightening fact, in the larger scheme of things, that storm wasn’t that big, certainly not the perfect solar super storm. Worst case scenario: if transformers and capacitors were really fried, power could be out for months, essentially transporting us back to the pre-industrial age.

There are those who are suggesting that this solar flip may occur much more rapidly and therefore much more violently than previous events. Given this recent activity and the increasing behavior of activity we think it is prudent to issue to watch advisory. It could happen tomorrow and we would have about 48 hours to react. Simply do the following checklist and make sure you are as ready for such event as you can be.

Consider your needs for the number of residents in your home

Do you have a source emergency power and heat? For how long?

Do you have food, medicine, water, an ability to deal with sanitation?  For how long?

Will you need alternative shelter for the residents?

What are your anticipated transportation and child care needs?

Do you have the ability to communicate with family and emergency services without power?

Now would be a good time to review these things. Pay attention to this activity daily. You can follow here:  Solarham

Solar Flares and Earthquake Acitivity – Heads Up -Updated 2:28 AM UTC

Since our earlier post, things are heating up.  We have had our 3rd X-Class Flare today! It is strong enough to make the top 10 list all time!  The sunspot responsible is still moving onto the earth facing side so we have to elevate our concern.

may14_2013_x3.2

In addition, since our earlier post, we have also had a 7.0 earthquake in Tonga.  The significance of this quake is it was 608 km in depth.  This is one of the deepest large quakes we have seen in our experience.  it simply means it occurred closer to the base of the plate, as opposed to the surface.  The dynamics of this quake are not apparent at this time, but it could be significant, especially to the areas of our concern, the west coast side of the pacific plate.  We haven’t elevated status yet, but really, please, pay close attention to these events over the next 24 hours.

Solar Flares and Earthquake Acitivity – Heads Up

As our regular readers know, we are constantly monitoring natural events that may pose hazards for us all.  We don’t make predictions, only report on events that raise the possibilities of future natural disasters or impacts.  We are raising our alert levels to yellow for the following 7-14 days.

The reasons are elevating solar activities that have resulted in several M-Class Flares and two X-class flares within the last 48 hours.  While the resulting CMEs so far have not been earth directed, the areas of the extreme activity are rotating into earth view and are showing no sign of weakening. There is a better than 50% chance of earth directed M-Class flares for the next 72 hours. In our estimation there is at least a 25% chance of an X-Class flare for the 72 hours. These of course could be accompanied by large to severe CMEs.

may13_2013_east

may13_2013_x2.8

may13_2013_cme

This combines with an increase of 4.7+ earthquake activity that we have been monitoring for the past few weeks.  Our concern is not so much where the earthquakes have been occurring as much as where they are NOT occurring.  A brief explanation  here: Plates are dynamic, so when one side is moving, the opposite and opposing side has to “adjust’ to that movement.  On occasion, the plates can “lock” and thereby resist this adjustment.  The bad news here is that the locked side of the plate usually builds a large amount of stress which can then be released with a sudden and violent “snap” if you will.  Such a situation now exists along the West Coast of the US, Canada, and Mexico.

plate locked 5_12_31

Combining these events, along with some anecdotal information such as the predictions of a global coastal event from places like FarSight.org and Half Past Human for an event around the 19-23 May is enough for us to issues this warning alert.  Make sure you pay attention, have your “Bug Out” bags ready to go, especially if yu are within 50 miles of a coast line and less than 500′ in elevation.

Heads Up!

Every Once in Awhile You Get Your Mind Blown

I am not necessarily a UFO nut. While you can’t argue the fact that over 30,000,000 people worldwide have witnessed and reported UFO’s, including credible witnesses like Air Force Pilots and Astronauts. You can’t deny the logic that with over 100 billion stars in our galaxy and over 100 billion galaxies there is certainly a large number possibility that life in all forms exists elsewhere.  Has contact been made? I don’t know that for sure, even with all of the “evidence” on the net to the contrary.

Given the authenticity of this photo and where it was submitted, I must say my jaw dropped when I saw it. This photo was taken on October 31st of this year in Norway by Hugo Lahre.  As far as I know this photo was submitted to only SpaceWeather. Com as part of the Aurora Photo Gallery. Can anyone explain the object in the aurora.  I certainly can’t. I have never seen anything like this and have no clue where to begin.  Submitted for your review and comment.  Enjoy and Wonder with me!

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Warning/Watch M Class Solar Flares Possible Nov. 21-Nov.25

Sunspot 1611 is growing in complexity and an M1 Flare has lifted from the eastern limb.  A CME from the solar prominence has also lifted off, but does not look earth directed. However, given the increase in activity there is a 70% chance on an M Class flare with an associated CME over the next four days.  This could be significant enough to effect satellites, radio communications, especially in the northern latitudes and there is also a possibility of disruption of various computer networks.

An X Class flare and large CME erupted on the backside of the sun two days ago that if earth directed would have caused severe disruption to the power grid. Therefore keep close watch as it seems Ole Sol is winding up a bit.

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green


Heads Up – Status Update #1 – Pay Attention If You Live on the Coastlines

It appears our concerns have become somewhat validated over the last 24 hours.  There was a 6.5 quake in Alaska and 2 M Class solar flares within the last 18 hours.  Both of the flares are earth directed and the sunspot anomalies are growing more complex rapidly.

Updated 11/13/2012 @ 00:50 UTC
Two M-Class Solar Flares
Solar activity picked up in a hurry with the emergence of Sunspot 1613 located in the southern hemisphere. A solar flare reaching M2.0 was detected at 23:28 UTC late Monday, followed by an impulsive M6.0 event at 02:04 UTC early Tuesday morning.

6.5 Earthquake Alaska Event Time

2012-11-12 10:42:15 UTC-10:00 at epicenter

Location – 57.544°N 142.889°W depth=55.2km (34.3mi)

Nearby Cities

248km (154mi) S of Cape Yakataga, Alaska

502km (312mi) W of Juneau, Alaska

544km (338mi) SE of Anchorage, Alaska

549km (341mi) WSW of Whitehorse, Canada

554km (344mi) SE of Knik-Fairview, Alaska

* This quake was a horizontal slip and not a vertical slip so no tsunami was generated.

We also believe this does not diminish our concerns as the other events are STILL building. In fact it increases our concerns and certainly everyone in coastal areas should stay very alert at least for the next 2-7 days. Please pay attention if you are in any coastal areas.  Again, no need to panic or bug out, but be ready to move quickly. Depending on where you live, East Coast or West Coast you will have between 4 to 12 hours to get to high ground if a megaquake with associated tsunami is generated.  That’s not a long time.

Seismic Activity is Building and Solar Activity is Accelerating- Heads Up!

As readers know, we are constantly monitoring convergences of activities that could spell increased risk of solar flares and seismic activity. Yesterday (November 11th) elements began to convergence that creates the need for us to issue this heads up.

First, increased seismic activity is definitely happening.  Particularly in Guatemala and Myanmar, where there is both increases in frequency and severity.

In Myanmar, these events have neared the 7.0 magnitude range and the frequency of quakes above 5.0 is significant.

These events are also combining with the significant and surprising solar events. We have had a rapid development of sunspots in the southern hemisphere of the sun, a filament lift-off that has produced an earth directed CME, a coronal hole that is streaming directly at the earth, and soon the rotation of a rather large magnetically complex system just now rotating into view on the western limb. These are illustrated here:

Therefore, given the facts all converging over the next two or three days, we feel it is important to pay attention.  The concern is always a significant quake with resulting tsunamis.  We are not predicting a location, only the likelihood of such an event is definitely increased.  It does appear, given the recent seismic activity that this event will be on the Pacific Rim, but that might not be the case and we could see some Atlantic event along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge or La Palma in the Canary Islands.  However, other than one significant quake along the Midi-Atlantic Ridge last week, seismic activity in the Atlantic region has been low.

There are some significant planetary alignments over the next few days that could also enhance the possibilities of a significant quake (+7.0 or greater).  As always, no need to panic, just be vigilant. More info will be posted if warranted.

Tsunami Status Update – Atlantic Region – Remains Yellow

Our last alert was issued on August 30th. Since that time, our concerns over the Virgin Island earthquake swarms have NOT abated.  The Virgin Islands continue to have swarms of earthquakes daily in the 2.5 to 4.5 magnitude range.  However, recent significant quakes along the mid-Atlantic ridge have made these concerns a little more serious for the folks on the east coast, especially from North Carolina to Florida.

There are several factors coming together that concern us enough we are issuing this status update.  Our concern still focuses on the Cumbre Vieja Volcano with a potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands.

Factor #1 – The swarms of quakes in the Virgin Islands have continued unabated, indicating either significant plate movements or eruptions in deep underwater vents, indicating plate pressure and movements.

Factor#2 – The recent quakes along the mid-Atlantic ridge and the potential for increased seismic and volcanic activity.  What we don’t have is a clear geological understanding of the East-West fault lines connecting the mid-Atlantic ridge to the seismically active regions both in the Virgin Islands and La Palma.

Factor#3 – There has been a significant increase in global seismic activity in the last 30 days.  Patrick Geryl has made more than a causal relationship to this increase in seismic activity and solar flaring , which may be somehow related to quakes.  He has been uncanningly accurate with his associated predictions for a significant period of time now, accurately predicting significant seismic events.   His hypothesis suggests that when the planets align, we can expect increased solar flaring, and the solar flaring causes increased geomagnetic pressure on the tectonic plates.  As such we are about to enter a phase of several significant alignments.  Indeed a significant solar flare has erupted from the sun, is earth directed, and due to arrive tomorrow, October 8, 2012.  In addition, there are more significant alignments due in the next two months.

October 31, 2012: Conjunction Neptune – Mercury and the Sun strong X flare possible   No real earthquake date…

3 Possible 7.5 plus earthquakes:  October 25, 29 or November 1

October 23 – 27, 2012: Opposition Earth – Saturn across the Sun October 24, 2012: Line Up Neptune – Moon – Earth.

October 25 – 30, 2012: Long Triple Line Up: Mars – Earth – Jupiter

October 26, 2012: Line Up Venus – Moon – Earth and Uranus – Moon – Earth

October 29, 2012: Line Up Sun – Moon – Earth and Saturn – Moon – Earth

October 31, 2012: Line Up Mercury – Moon – Earth

October 31 – November 3, 2012: Long Triple Line Up: Uranus – Earth – Venus

November 1, 2012: Line Up Jupiter – Moon – Earth and Mars – Moon – Earth

Why our concern continues to focus on La Palma has to do specifically with recent studies suggesting that geological evidence for a future collapse of the Cumbre Vieja is absolute.  A recent University of California study is, to say the least, sobering.

The issue is that the Cumbre Vieja Volcano on the Island of La Palma may experience a catastrophic failure of its west flank, dropping 150 to 500 km3 of rock into the sea. This would send not one, but a series of tsunamis west bound striking the areas of the US, as we outlined above.  These tsunami pulses could range from 30-40 M to 5-10M in rapid succession within nine hours of the flank collapse. See below.

Therefore, we continue to advise our friends to keep watch and to make sure they have their “bug-out” bags at the ready.  We wish to make clear we are NOT sounding any alarms, but only these elements seem to be combining in such a fashion it bears to be watched closely.

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT!

A major solar flare reaching X1.4 peaked at 16:52 UTC Thursday afternoon. A major and long duration eruption reaching X1.4 around Sunspot 1520 peaked at 16:52 UTC Thursday afternoon. Type II and IV Sweep Frequency Events were recorded. This event was also responsible for a Strong R3 Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection was produced and appears to be Earth directed.

CME Update: As per the latest CME track from the Goddard Space Center, the fast moving plasma cloud from today will impact our Geomagnetic Field on Saturday with a nearly direct hit. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible and this could lead to very nice Aurora displays at higher latitudes. Please note that with any CME prediction, nothing is for certain. Click HERE to watch the forecast track animation.

Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

Class M    80/80/80

Class X    35/35/35

Proton     99/99/50

PCAF       red