Solar Event Alert – Red Alert

Major Solar Flare and CME
Geoeffective Sunspot 2158 produced a strong solar flare Wednesday afternoon measuring X1.6 at 17:45 UTC. The event was associated with a Type II Radio emission with an estimated velocity of 3750 km/s.

This is indicative of a strong coronal mass ejection. Updated coronagraph imagery shows a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) heading into space and directed towards Earth. This is the third CME producing event in the last 24 hours and there is the possibility these events can combine before reaching earth. Proton levels streaming past Earth are on the rise and a Minor Radiation Storm is now in progress.

xflare_9_11_14

Low and high energy proton levels streaming past our planet are currently on the rise. Watches are now out for a solar radiation storm to take place and this could affect things such as high altitude travel and Earth orbiting satellites. Once the plasma cloud reaches Earth, possibly by as early as Friday, minor to major geomagnetic storming will be possible. This event could interact with an earlier slower moving CME following the M4.5 event from Sept. 9. Sky watchers should remain alert this weekend for visual aurora displays. More updates to follow.

current pressure readings 9_11_14

G2 (Moderate) Storm watch issued by NOAA/SWPC beginning early on Sept. 12. Geomagnetic conditions will of course depend on the strength of the actual incoming shock impact, followed by solar wind characteristics (Bz/IMF) in the hours following any such impact. The coronal mass ejection (CME) was the result of an M4.5 solar flare around region 2158 early Wednesday (UTC).

There is also a 40% chance of additional X Class flares within the next 48 hours. This is an unusual event in that this level of flaring and CME production is coming from a large sunspot that is pointed directly at earth.

Expect satellite communications to be disturbed. Power plant owners should expect power surges. Skywatchers should expect  potentially large auroras, possibly visible as far south as Nebraska.

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Yellow Alert – Solar Flare Alert – June 10, 2014

Two X-class solar flares have occurred in the last 24 hours. These flares have occurred around region 2087, which is rotating into earth view.

FIRST X-CLASS Flare

The first flare, an impulsive solar flare event measuring X2.2 was observed around region 2087 peaking at 11:42 UTC / June 10, 2014. A TenFlare measuring 1400 sfu and lasting 3 minutes was detected. So far only a small release of plasma appears to be evident. A small CME became visible in STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery following the event and appears to be directed to the southeast and away from our planet.

xflare1_5_6_10_14

LOG ENTRIES:

06/10/2014 @ 13:30 UTC
A small coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery and should be directed away from our planet. Because visible at 12:54 UTC.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Jun 10 1139 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jun 10 1140 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jun 10 1142 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 1400 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 161 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SECOND X-CLASS Flare

The second X Flare measuring X1.5 was observed around region 2087 at 12:52 UTC / June 10, 2014. This was the second such event in just over an hour. The event was associated with a Type IV radio emission and a 10cm Radio Burst measuring 530 solar flux units and lasting 18 minutes. A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible shortly afterwards in STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery. Due to the limb proximity, the plasma cloud was directed to the east and away from Earth.

2,2xflare 6_10_14

LOG ENTRIES:

06/10/2014 @ 18:40 UTC
The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model released by the Space Weather Prediction Center has been updated to include the bright CME from this morning following the second X-Flare event (X1.5). As expected, the expansive plasma cloud will likely pass to the east of our planet and have little to no impact on our geomagnetic field.

An impulsive solar flare event measuring X2.2 was observed around region 2087 peaking at 11:42 UTC / June 10, 2014. A TenFlare measuring 1400 sfu and lasting 3 minutes was detected. So far only a small release of plasma appears to be evident. A small CME became visible in STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery following the event and appears to be directed to the southeast and away from our planet.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Jun 10 1241 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jun 10 1247 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jun 10 1259 UTC
Duration: 18 minutes
Peak Flux: 530 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 161 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

THE CONCERN

An alert for major flaring has been issued.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Jun 10 1230 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Region 2087 has demonstrated the capacity to expel several major flares as it transited the back side of the sun and will move into a more earth-effective position within the next 48 hours. Strong flares with significantly eruptive associated CME’s are possible. Chances for M Class flares is greater than 65% and chances of X-Class flares is over 30%. Stay alert. Disruption of communications, internet, and power can occur with major flaring.

This Week is Off the Charts Relating to Weather

The weather extremes continue to accumulate. Whether it is a record typhoon season in the Pacific, with the largest storm ever recorded or the unusual extremes in temperatures being experienced in the US and Canada, there is no doubt we have not seen anything like this before on the planet.

Francisco 1

Just take a look at this week in the US:

Almost 1000 record low max temps vs 17 record high temps

Records in the last 7 days:

205 snowfall records.
969 Low Max. 203 Low temps.
17 High Temp.

RecordEvents_21Nov-28Nov13

Italy –“We have snow at 100 meters (330 ft)  in the southern part of the peninsula, and one dead due to the cold,” says geologist Mirco Poletto in Italy.

Alaska – 14.7 inches (37 cm) of snowfall Sunday broke the Nov 24 record. As of Monday, the weather service reported 75 inches (190 cm) of snowfall in Valdez for the month of November, more than 41 inches (104 cm) above average for this time of year. (That makes it almost twice normal.)

Antartctica – The Aurora Australis was due to return to Hobart more than a week ago after a resupply mission, but it is still navigating through heavy ice about 180 nautical miles off the Davis research station. Second year in a row of above normal heavy ice setting in early.

Arctic – Heaviest Ice in a decade.

Global Sea Ice – It has been 25 years since Hansen predicted the demise of polar sea ice. Gaia has celebrated the date by producing the most polar sea ice in the last 25 years.

november23globalseaice

Whether this is a result of global warming or the onset of a new mini-ice age I will leave to the academics and scientists who can never admit “they don’t know”. What we do know is that extreme changes are happening as we speak. As always be prepared!

Red Alert -Powerful Typhoon Francisco on track for Fukushima — Typhoon Lekima develops in Pacific — Concern storms may collide, “It’s called the Fujiwara effect” — Both could hit east coast of Japan later in week!

francisco_Lekima

Wow, this typhoon season has truly been deadly. There seems to be no end in sight for Japan. Super typhoon Francisco is forecast to strike Japan as a tropical storm at about 09:00 GMT on 25 October.  Francisco is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 101 km/h (63 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

Although Francisco has weakened, anyone living in or traveling to Japan should not let their guard down. A track very similar to that of deadly Typhoon Wipha from last week is expected. Over the past 24-hours, the likelihood of an actual landfall has decreased, with signs indicated that the center of the storm will make a sharper curve to the northeast and passing south of Japan.

Francisco 1

Francisco will be weakened further by the time it nears Tokyo and will likely be a tropical storm as it passes very close to Tokyo. Nonetheless, periods of rain could still impact the country, especially in southeastern Japan. The threat of flash flooding, damaging winds and mudslides persists for areas of southeast Japan, including Miyazaki and Osaka.

72hour Francisco

The main factor steering Francisco will be a trough that moves into Japan by the middle of the week. This trough will pull moisture from Francisco northward, ahead of the storm leading to heavy rainfall across portions of Kyushu, Shikoku and southeastern Honshu Wednesday night into Thursday. A prolonged period of rainfall for these locations will result in rainfall amounts of 150-250 mm (6-10 inches) with local amounts over 300 mm (12 inches) through Friday.

francisco rainfall

Adding to the concern is already saturated soil across southern and eastern Japan following former Typhoon Wipha last week and another low pressure system that brought several inches of additional rainfall over the weekend. Many parts of southern and eastern Japan have already received more than double the normal monthly October rainfall totals. This will only increase the threat of flooding and mudslides as torrential rainfall from Francisco arrives later this week.

Adding to all of this is Typhoon Lekima is heading  in the same general direction at the same time. Tropical Storm Lekima intensified quickly early on Oct. 22 while traveling over the open waters of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The day before the rapid intensification, NASA’s TRMM satellite passed overhead and analyzed the rainfall rates in the storm, spotting heavy rainfall in two quadrants.

On Oct. 22 at 0900 UTC/5 a.m. EDT, Lekima’s maximum sustained winds were up to 105 knots/120.8 mph/194.5 kph. Lekima’s center was located near 16.7 north and 156.1 east, about 705 nautical miles/ 811.3 miles/ 1,306 km east-northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. Lekima is moving to the northwest at 18 knots/20.7 mph/33.3 kph. Satellite data on Oct. 22 showed that Lekima now has a well-formed eye, about 15 nautical miles/17.2 miles/27.7 km wide with tight bands of thunderstorms wrapping into it.

lekima1

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) though, Typhoons Francisco and Lekima will most likely hit Japan. The KMA said the two typhoons could meet. “When two or more typhoons collide, they affect each other’s path and strength. It’s called the Fujiwara effect,” said weather forecaster Hur Jin-ho. “Though we are expecting that they are moving along their own paths, there still is the possibility that the two could change course,” he said.

72 hour Lekima

The concern here is that Fukishima is in the path of both of these storms and the possibility of creating 20 inches of rain or more could be disasterous.

We urge our friends in Japan and outer islands to take this very seriously. The next 5 days could be extremely dangerous.

 

Update 10/27/2013 – 1035 PM EDT – What happened to Francisco and Lekima? In the years we have been monitoring and reporting on weather related events, never have we seen storm systems behave as these two storms behaved. Not only did they both suddenly turn course north, they simply disappeared! We don’t mean they weakened and dissipated, they just disappeared. While we always had casual links between solar activity and storm generation, we never had supported theories of weather manipulation using something like HAARP or Tesla Generators, etc. However, in view of what we monitored with these two storms and the lack of MSM coverage, and the fact these two storms have simply also disappeared from the Japanese Typhoon Center archives, something is definitely not normal here. Really at a lose to explain.

Second Update on Typhoon Wipha and Typhoon Nari – Deadly

The deadly storms continue to pound the east. Tokyo (CNN) — At least 17 people have died and hundreds of flights have been canceled as Typhoon Wipha pummeled the Tokyo area on Wednesday.

A local government official in Oshima, a small island 120 km (75 miles) south of Tokyo, said that a majority of the people died after heavy rain triggered flooding and landslides that blocked roads and crushed houses. Rescuers were unable to reach about some people in the area hit by landslides.

iReport: Heavy winds near Tokyo as Typhoon Wipha hits

More than 500 domestic and international flights were canceled at Tokyo’s Narita and Haneda airports and the national rail operator halted bullet train services in central and northern Japan. The typhoon is moving north along the Pacific coast of Japan and is expected to reach the northernmost island of Hokkaido by late Wednesday.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), the main electricity supplier in Tokyo and central Japan, said blackouts affected more than 56,000 households. TEPCO, which has been struggling to deal with a series of leaks at its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, said workers at the plant were “on vigil” and accumulated rainwater had been released from storage tanks.

At least 13 people were killed when Typhoon Nari pounded the Philippines over the weekend, the country’s disaster management agency said. The typhoon struck the country’s north Saturday, displacing more than 43,000 people in 11 provinces, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said.

131016031257-japan-typhoon-wipha-houses-horizontal-gallery

The deaths reported were due to falling trees, electrocution, mudslides, drowning and collapsed structures, it said. Three fishermen remain missing, and 1,900 passengers are stranded at different ports. Flash floods triggered by the typhoon killed three people and left two others missing in Quang Binh province, provincial disaster official Ngo Duc Song said. The floods submerged 10,000 homes in the province, many of them up to 2 meters (6.5 feet) under water, and left four villages isolated, he said.

Nearly 5,000 people were evacuated from their flooded homes to higher ground, Song said, adding that soldiers and police officers were sent to help villagers deal with the floods. In the neighboring province of Ha Tinh, authorities were searching for three people missing in the floods. The storm weakened to a tropical depression after making landfall in Vietnam.

First Update on Typhoon Wipha

Millions of people in Japan are bracing for the approach of Typhoon Wipha and the expected destructive winds, life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Although Wipha has weakened during the past 24 hours due to interaction with a front to the north, the cyclone remains a dangerous typhoon as it approaches the eastern coastline of Japan.

The cold front mentioned above will continue to direct Wipha northeastward on Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing the center of the storm very close to the coast near Tokyo. The greatest area of concern extends across eastern Honshu, including the greater Tokyo area, home to more than 35 million people.

What is not talked about is that the current track of Wipha takes it right past TEPCO’s Fukishima reactors. In addition to the damaging winds and maybe even a greater concern is the tremendous amount of rainfall expected in that area, up to 250mm. This could prove disastrous in managing the current retention ponds of radioactive wastewaters.

Wipha Track2

Heavy rainfall has already overspread eastern Japan in advance of the storm. Rainfall totals between 150-250 mm (6-10 inches) are expected through midday on Wednesday with isolated amounts over 300 mm (12 inches) before rainfall comes to an end from south to north. Oshima, south of Tokyo has already received more than 558 mm (22 inches) of rain.

rainfall from wipha

The strongest wind gusts are expected to surpass 120 kph (75 mph) during the peak of the storm. Winds of this magnitude can lead to downed trees, widespread power outages and structural damage.

Heavy rainfall will also target the higher terrain of inland Japan. The amount of rain falling on Tuesday night and Wednesday will be significant, enough to cause widespread flooding in addition to the threat for mudslides.

Here We Go Again – Typhoons Alert for Nari and Wipha

The end of this typhoon season in the Pacific is apparently going to be historic. 25 named storms, Phailin was a CAT 5 and possibly the biggest storm on record and now we have TWO more typhoons churning in the Pacific.  Typhoon Nari will impact Vietnam within the next two days as a possible CAT 2 storm and Typhoon Wipha could impact Japan with the next 4 days as a CAT 3-4 storm.

typhoons 14 oct 13

AT 141800Z, TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 654 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS.

wipha

wipha track

AT 141800Z, TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.2E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM EASTWARD OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS.

nari

Nari's track

  IN ADDITION THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 151.4E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LOW-LEVEL WAVE EVIDENT IN A 142020Z TRMM IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, RELAXING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS LIKELY.

Heads up to our friends in Vietnam and Japan, it looks like a rocky week. Stay safe. We will update if new developments occur.