Major Solar Flare Detected + CME
A major solar flare measuring X1.2 was detected on Tuesday afternoon peaking at 18:30 UTC. The source of the eruption was region 1943, with interaction between sunspot 1944. Because the flare appears to be long in duration, a coronal mass ejection is possible. The blast site is in a great geo-effective position for Earth directed eruptions. Attached image by the Solar Dyanamics Observatory (SDO) below, captures a “wave” of plasma racing away from the blast site. Stay tuned to solarham.com for the latest updates. The active region remains fairly complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta), and will remain a threat for further isolated moderate to strong solar flares. Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) for the next three days (07-09 Jan) with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares from active Regions 1944 and 1946. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 50/50/50
This event and further activity could cause major disruptions to communications and may affect the power grid as well. This event follows events on the 5th and the 6th that were large M-Class Events. We will keep you posted, and if you are involved in communications maintenance or power distribution, be prepared as best you can for fallout from these events.