During the past 48 hours, solar activity has increased significantly. Since we monitor this activity on a routine basis, this seems to be significant enough to elevate our watch status to yellow. You can get full real-time information at Solarham. While the activity is not significant enough to cause a major concern for an associated significant EMP event, certainly radio and satellite communications disruptions, especially in the high latitude areas could occur.
CME Update: The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) caused by the eruption around Sunspot 1513 is Earth directed according to the latest CME model run. An impact will be possible by early on July 8th. Should this CME sweep past our planet, geomagnetic storming will be possible at high latitudes.
Solar activity is currently at high levels with multiple M-Class flares detected around Sunspot 1515, including an M5.3 event on Wednesday morning. Sunspot 1513 in the northern hemisphere also produced an M1.8 event on Wednesday afternoon. Numerous Coronal Mass Ejections are seen in the latest STEREO Behind COR2 images, but none appear to be directed towards Earth. There will remain the chance for a strong solar flare. Two new sunspots did rotate into view off the eastern limb, including one region that looks to be the return of old sunspot 1507.
Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M: 80/80/80 Class X: 25/25/25 Proton: 10/10/10 PCAF: green
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active: 25/20/25 Minor Storm: 05/05/05 Major-severe storm: 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active: 15/15/15 Minor storm: 30/15/30 Major-severe storm: 30/10/30
So we would strongly advise both communication and power delivery activities monitor this situation closely over the next few days. Unshielded electronic devices may also be affected in the high latitude regions.