Further Updates from the Currency War Front

Well, folks, it’s official – mark November 22, 2010 in your calendars.  With yesterday’s $8.3 billion POMO monetization, the Fed’s official holdings of US Treasury securities now amount to $891.3 billion, which is higher than the second largest holder of US debt: China, which as of September 30 held $884 billion, and Japan, with $864 billion.  The Fed is now buying about $30 billion per week, or about $120 billion per month, for the foreseeable future and beyond, it would mean that China would need to buy a comparable amount to be in the standing. It won’t. In other words, the Ponzi operation is now complete, and the Fed’s monetization of US debt has made it not only the largest holder of such debt, but made external funding checks and balances in the guise of indirect auction bidding, irrelevant. China is now not the one having the most to lose on a DV01 basis on that day when the inevitable surge in interest rates finally happens. That honor is now strictly reserved for America’s taxpayers.

In addition, Tuesday China and Russia sent a loud message to the FED.

Source: Asia One – Su Qiang and Li Xiaokun

St. Petersburg, Russia – China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.  Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.

“About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies,” Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.

The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities. The yuan has now started trading against the Russian rouble in the Chinese interbank market, while the renminbi will soon be allowed to trade against the rouble in Russia, Putin said.

“That has forged an important step in bilateral trade and it is a result of the consolidated financial systems of world countries,” he said.

Putin made his remarks after a meeting with Wen. They also officiated at a signing ceremony for 12 documents, including energy cooperation.  The documents covered cooperation on aviation, railroad construction, customs, protecting intellectual property, culture and a joint communique. Details of the documents have yet to be released.

Wen said Beijing is willing to boost cooperation with Moscow in Northeast Asia, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in major international organizations and on mechanisms in pursuit of a “fair and reasonable new order” in international politics and the economy.

Sun Zhuangzhi, a senior researcher in Central Asian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the new mode of trade settlement between China and Russia follows a global trend after the financial crisis exposed the faults of a dollar-dominated world financial system.

Pang Zhongying, who specializes in international politics at Renmin University of China, said the proposal is not challenging the dollar, but aimed at avoiding the risks the dollar represents.  Wen arrived in the northern Russian city on Monday evening for a regular meeting between Chinese and Russian heads of government.

In related news on the situation in the EU comes the grim but expected news that the Spanish 3-month bill auction failed.  The debt agency sold only €3.26bn of the €4-5bn that was offered, at average yield of 1.743% vs 0.951% prior. What people must understand is that is nearly double the interest rate.  This debt service is the back breaker to the economy.  Tensions are surely going to start boiling over on the Emerald Isle.  If Greece was a big bomb to the EU and ECB stability, and Ireland was Greece’s big brother, then the Spanish economy is their bigger brother Bubba.  These three countries WILL require further bailouts and quite frankly more than the ECB can handle.  The death of the EU is like watching a shot buffalo go down in a Sam Peckinpah movie.

Finally, back in the US, in addition to the impacts of QE2, the mortgage situation as related to the big banks is far from going away.  To put things in clear perspective, the banks bundled, and sold to investors, junk paper consisting of bundled questionable mortgages.  In most cases, those same banks kept the seconds on those mortgages.  However, now the investors do have recourse.  These bundled packages required the banks to “buy back” any equity that was in default or foreclosure.  The bottom line to this is that the top five banks, between the bad second mortgages and the default clauses on the crap they dumped on investors, are on the hook for nearly $400 Billion, which is more than the equity value of those top five banks.

In view of the fact the currency wars have unquestionably erupted, these elements represent the perfect storm.  As a side, the “fear” index on Wall Street today was the highest recorded since 1987.  These events are moving along the worst case scenario lines.  Watch very carefully.


Author: redhawk500

International business consultant, author, blogger, and student of life. After 35 years in business, trying to wake the world to a new reality. One of prosperity, abundance, and most importantly equal opportunity. it's time to redistribute wealth and power.

55 thoughts on “Further Updates from the Currency War Front”

    1. That is true and it is certainly a lot of policy makers and bankers have went “all in”. However, events since I wrote the article seem to indicate we are still following the worst case scenario time line. I happen to believe the outcome is somewhat predestined. No matter what the sovereign entities do to correct the problem, they are contained by the “secret weapon”. The bankers control the rate agencies and they simply up the ante. Take a real hard look at Ireland’s situation, even with the bailout announced of 133 Billion Euro, as related to their issued bonds. There is no way with rates jumping to over 5% they can service such a debt. It just becomes some unreal percentage of GDP.

      May You Always Travel in Peace

    1. Tena:

      There is no need to bury anything. I think quite the opposite. The people of the world have retake control of our global financial system or it will bury us all in such a debt load that we would never be able to ever recover or we will face hyperinflation such as the world has never experienced. I am just trying to inform as best I can. Thanks for your kind comments, however always feel free to critize as well. That can only make this blog better.

      May You Always Travel in Peace,

  1. Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me.

    1. Rest assured as I follow this closely I will most certainly keep my readers informed. In fact, I am working on the next article as I respond to you. Many people simply do not understand how currency markets affects their lives and nothing affects our lives more than the value of our currency. Thank you for your kind comments and encouragement.

      May You Always Travel in Peace

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      May You Always Travel in Peace

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      May You Always Travel in Peace

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      May You Always Travel in Peace

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      May You Always Travel in Peace.

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      May You Always Travel in Peace

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      May You Always Travel in Peace

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